CFO Services - Inventory Planning For Profit

As a Part Time CFO where I have multiple clients, there are many clients when I engage with them for the first time that I find do not have an inventory plan/forecast. An inventory plan/forecast is an essential tool and is one of the essential CFO Services in order to manage cash flow and reduce risk to the business owner. Retailers especially need this tool because inventory to a retailer represents one of the retailers’ greatest risks, but the need for this tool also holds true in distribution and manufacturing companies.

An inventory plan or forecast is different from an open to buy plan. Most retailers have an open to buy plan by product classification. The open to buy is calculated by taking projected sales in the product classification (retailers usually use last year’s sales. They should work with a CFO to prepare a more legitimate sales forecast taking other economic, market variables and the retailer’s knowledge of the customer into consideration) and adding the desired ending inventory you want to have at the end of the period you are buying for and then subtracting the beginning inventory for the product classification. The result is how much you should buy or is known as your “open to buy”. You can use cost dollars, retail dollars or units in the aforementioned calculation. You can also include planned markdowns, average markups and other factors. I like to keep it simple and use units.

Example of “open to buy” calculation:

Product class	Calculation Item	Units
Phillips Head Screwdrivers	Projected Sales	500
	Add : Desired Ending Inventory	50
	Less: Beginning Inventory	100
	Open to Buy	450

Now there are other factors that retailers consider (justified or not justified) that increases their “open to buy”, for example:

1. How hot the buyer thinks the product will be (This will increase projected sales and therefore increase open to buy)
2. Sizes you may have to fill from beginning inventory to complete size runs or decisions to carry larger or smaller sizes to fit a certain customer segment
3. Colors you want to add because you think they will have greater consumer appeal
4. Merchandising plans that have higher stocking requirements to fill rack or shelf space properly
5. There may be a bad product mix or obsolescence in beginning inventory for the product classification and therefore the beginning inventory needs to be reduced to account for that
6. Better payment terms offered by supplier
7. Extra discounts from suppliers at certain quantities
8. Pressure from a supplier to buy more or they will threaten to open a competitor.
9. Pressure from a supplier to buy more who is giving you more advertising money
10. Pressure from a supplier to buy more because they have given you great support or provided you with favors in the past.
    

Do you see how you can overbuy? Do you see how easy it is to commit the greatest sin in retail? Some of these aforementioned examples are justified, others are not. All of these factors create more risk.

Items 1 through 5 above and are legitimate reasons for taking additional risk and increasing your open to buy if you really did your market/customer study homework. Item 6 above is legitimate only when you are considering the timing of shipments. Items 7 through 10 above are booby traps and are not legitimate reasons to go over your open to buy and take additional risk. In a future article I will explain why the booby traps are booby traps, but the purpose of this article is the absolute need for an inventory plan/forecast.

Let’s say that you have ice water running through your veins and you do not succumb to any pressure. You simply use your experience and knowledge and if you do go over your open to buy in a product classification you legitimately feel a product is going to be hot or you have to complete size runs or there are colors you believe will be in great demand or you have a new merchandising plan that has higher stocking requirements or your beginning inventory could be completely stale and you have to discount a lot of it. Even though you have these legitimate reasons for overbuying you are still assuming greater risk and you need to understand the extent of the risk you are taking and that is where the inventory plan/forecast comes in.

Most retailers just have their open to buy analysis by product classification and call it a day. However they are missing an overall top level inventory receipt plan and inventory forecast. Why does the retailer need an overall top level inventory plan and complete inventory forecast in addition to their open to buy by product classification? Because this plan/forecast gives the retailer a macro view to clearly see how overbought or under bought they are as well as to see what the impact on cash flow will be. This helps the retailer measure their risk and see what is really going to happen at the entire company level.

This plan/forecast starts with beginning inventory and then adds the inventory receipts on order and lists them by the month they will be shipped in and subtracts the costs of the projected sales by month to determine ending inventory by month. You will be able to see how the projected ending inventories by month compare to last year’s monthly ending inventories. However that is not enough. You may have overbought last year. The final test should be entering your inventory plan into a business and cash flow forecast and letting the projected cash flow tell you if you are overbought. In the business and cash flow forecast you must also plug in the proper months when the supplier invoices will be paid. If you find that the business and cash flow forecast tells you that you are going to be out of cash during the year then you are likely overbought and are assuming great risk. Here is an example of a sample inventory plan/forecast for a 3 month period:

Inventory Plan - Numbers in ($000)	Jan	Feb	Mar
Beginning inventory	$ 85.0	$ 90.0	$110.0
Add: Projected Receipts Product on order	40.0	60.0	70.0
Less: Cost of Goods sold on Projected sales	35.0	40.0	50.0
Ending inventory	$ 90.0	$110.0	$130.0

A/P Trade Plan - Numbers in ($000)	Jan	Feb	Mar
Beginning Trade Suppliers Accounts Payable	$50.0	$ 40.0	$ 60.0
Add: Projected Receipts Product on order	40.0	60.0	70.0
Less: Payments to Trade Suppliers (30 Days)	50.0	40.0	60.0
Ending Trade Suppliers Accounts Payable	$40.0	$ 60.0	$ 70.0

In this example the retailer may want to rethink purchases as inventory is rising. Certainly this could be gearing up for a busy period but even if that is true you must still assess if you are bringing inventory in too early especially if your trade terms are 30 days or less.

As mentioned, an inventory plan/forecast works best when it can be plugged into a business and cash flow forecast, but it is still useful to give the retailer the macro view of the impact of inventory ordered. The Trade Accounts Payable Plan should also be prepared as part of this inventory planning/forecasting process.

One of the CFO’s major responsibilities is to reduce risk. To the retailer inventory represents the greatest risk. I have seen many retailers overbuy their way out of business. The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) needs to guide the retailer through the inventory planning/forecasting process.